There was no baby boom after COVID-19. Predicting there would have been was just wishful thinking

A NUMBER OF PEOPLE PREDCITED A BABY BOOM AFTER COVID-19.  THEY IGNORED HISTORY..

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There were a number of assumptions made that a COVID baby boom would occur after the pandemic of 2020 and 2021.. now months into a new year, and around a time when the blossoming life should abound, here are the facts: Not happening.

A year into the pandemic, early data and surveys point to a baby bust in many advanced economies from the U.S. to Europe to East Asia, often on top of existing downward trends in births..

People are abandoning plans for marriages and changing those for when they want to become parents.

“All evidence points to a sharp decline in fertility rates and in the number of births across highly developed countries," said Tomas Sobotka, a researcher at the Wittgenstein Center for Demography and Global Human Capital in Vienna. “The longer this period of uncertainty lasts, the more it will have lifelong effects on the fertility rate."

A survey carried out by Italian research group Osservatorio Giovani between late March and early April in Western Europe’s five largest countries—Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the U.K.—found that over two-thirds of respondents who initially planned to have a child in 2020 decided to postpone or abandon plans to conceive over the next year.

Meanwhile in America, the Guttmacher Institute, a research organization, found that one-third of women polled in late April and early May wanted to delay childbearing or have fewer children because of the pandemic.

The Brookings Institution estimated in December that, as a result of the pandemic, 300,000 fewer babies would be born in the U.S. in 2021 compared with last year. That estimate is based on survey evidence and the historical experience that a one-percentage-point increase in the unemployment rate reduces the birthrate by roughly 1%.

While this news may be sobering to some, there is some historical evidence that it should not be surprising. Yes, there was a baby boom after World War II.  But ... after.  

Additionally there were now 9/11 baby booms.. no "blackout babies" booms. These are just internet lure and wishful thinking... 

When you view history with your 20/20 lens, you will find that nine months after traumatic events, birth rates do fall considerably.   

After initial losses, birth rates rebound eventually. 

The Brookings Institute called this one in June 2020 when they predicted half a million fewer children due to COVID.